No matter how experienced we become, it’s pretty darn hard to predict the future. Or anything where you have variable “human” in it.
Yesterday, I made a blog post about how many computers we really need and it quickly got several replies. It’s not super-much, but several replies is several replies. I didn’t expect those. I certainly didn’t expect seeing “DVDs are history” comment there.
Similarly, I wasn’t expecting so many positive comments on newsletter hack thing.
I think this goes for bigger scale as well. I was watching some music publisher guy saying that when they took Apocalyptica under their wings, they estimated that this band could sell perhaps 4000 units – so they tried it. They ended up selling something like million units or whatever. And this guru had long experience from the scene.
As Gandalf said: “Even the very wise cannot see all ends.”
(He also said “My heart tells me that Gollum has some part to play yet, for good or ill before this is over.”, but let’s not get stuck in that.)
Prediction is very hard, especially about the future.